Hybrid Justice in the Russian Federation, 2020–2025: The Impact of the Link between E-Justice, Court-Annexed Mediation and ODR on the Quality of Judicial Reasoning and the Stability of Judgments in Appeal and Cassation (Micro-Level NLP Analysis and Quasi-Experiment)

Abstract

The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of digital reforms carried out in 2020–2025—namely e-justice, online proceedings, and court-annexed mediation—on the quality and stability of judgments delivered by courts of general jurisdiction in the Russian Federation. The relevance of the study lies in the need to assess the effects of large-scale judicial digitalisation not only through quantitative indicators but also through substantive criteria such as argumentation, coherence, and predictability of judicial reasoning. The scientific novelty of the research consists in developing and applying an interdisciplinary framework combining a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences methodology with natural language processing (NLP) tools to measure the cognitive quality of judicial reasoning. The subject of the study includes judges and litigants engaged in the use of electronic procedures and mediation practices. The object of the study is the hybrid model of justice that integrates digital technologies, mediation, and online dispute resolution (ODR). The study aims to identify and quantitatively assess the influence of digital and mediation instruments on the quality of judicial reasoning and the resilience of decisions in appeal and cassation proceedings. The study employs quasi-experimental and empirical–statistical methods (difference-in-differences, panel regression, event-study), as well as natural language processing (NLP) tools to assess the cognitive quality of judicial reasoning based on open data from the Judicial Department, the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, and international court corpora (PCT, TOL, BAILII). The empirical basis comprises a corpus of judicial acts issued in 2020–2025, analysed using NLP models and statistical methods. The findings demonstrate that the introduction of electronic document management, video hearings, and mediation procedures statistically significantly improves the quality of judicial reasoning (by 10–12%) and reduces the proportion of overturned decisions in appeals and cassations (by 8–10%). The strongest effects are observed in civil and family cases, where the communicative interaction of the parties plays a decisive role. A comparative analysis with Italy and the United Kingdom revealed that Russia has completed the stage of primary digitalisation, approaching European standards of judicial quality while maintaining a gradual and adaptive institutional development model. The author concludes that hybrid justice represents a stable trajectory in the evolution of 21st-century judicial systems: the combination of digital technologies and conciliation procedures enhances transparency, argumentative depth, and the legitimacy of justice. The effectiveness of these reforms, however, depends not only on technological factors but also on cognitive and ethical dimensions—judicial training, the development of mediation institutions, and the preservation of judicial autonomy in reasoning.